Cactus Game Design Message Boards
Redemption® Collectible Trading Card Game HQ => Playgroup and Tournament Central => Redemption® Official Tournaments => Topic started by: Captain Kirk on September 06, 2013, 02:24:21 PM
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For reference, see the first thread of this kind (http://www.cactusgamedesign.com/message_boards/official-tournaments/top-t1-2p-players-at-nationals-over-past-10-years/) last year.
How do you determine the best overall players in Redemption? Some say RNRS is a great system, some say that it favors those who can attend more tournaments, some say it is the best option we have. However, I firmly believe that National tournaments are the strongest indicator of the skill level of players.
You can download the 2013 rankings (https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2i012EeJFBYNGlkamRBbXJ0cUE/edit?usp=sharing).
Math Behind the Rankings:
- Filter out all players who only played T1 2p at one national tournament since 2002. Consistency is a necessary requirement to show your true skill level. Most of the top average finishers were those that only played in one national tournament.
- For every year a player played at nationals, divide player's finish by the total number of players in that given year. The player's finish is thereby represented in terms of percentile. Add all of the percentiles together from each of the years that a player participated in the main event at nationals and divide by the number of years the player has played at nationals. Then multiply by the average number of players at national tournaments since 2002 (78.58333333 players).
- Therefore, the "average finish" is represented as the place the player would have obtained each year if there were 78.58333333 players at nationals each year.
Notes:
- When I first ran these numbers last year, I only looked at 2003-2012. I expanded the numbers to include 2002 this year.
- Even players that are "idle" in T1 2p for a year have their rankings change as the average number of players playing in T1 2p at nationals will vary with each passing year.
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Top 50 Average T1 2p Finishes & Percentile at Nationals ('02-'13), min 2 Nationals - Active and Retired Players
# Change Player Avg Finish (%)
1 (1) John Nesfeder 3.3127 (99.1%)
2 (2) Joshua Hey 3.4053 (99.0%)
3 (3) Gabe Isbell 3.7499 (98.7%)
4 (4) Daniel Huisinga 4.4961 (98.2%)
5 (6) Chad Soderstrom 5.6265 (97.8%)
6 (7) Tim Mierzejewski 6.3851 (97.5%)
7 (8 ) Jonathan Greeson 6.7095 (97.2%)
8 (9) Jeremiah Bryant 6.9745 (97.0%)
9 (10) Michael Turnidge 7.0661 (96.7%)
10 (11) Matthew Townsend 9.317 (95.7%)
11 (12) Burton Reed 9.8879 (95.6%)
12 (5) Matt Stupienski 9.9777 (95.4%)
13 (15) Justin Sangillo 10.4391 (94.7%)
14 (13) Jordan Alstad 10.8483 (94.4%)
15 (14) Josh Slinkard 11.1039 (94.1%)
16 (17) Martin Miller 11.7419 (93.4%)
17 (16) Jesse Epperson 11.7659 (93.3%)
18 (19) Nicholas Marshall 12.6759 (92.8%)
19 (20) Roy Cannaday 12.7213 (92.6%)
20 (21) Ben Arp 12.9013 (92.5%)
21 (22) Jason O'Rourke 13.0972 (92.3%)
22 (24) Jonathan Alstad 13.3457 (91.8%)
23 (25) Daniel Whitten 13.7449 (91.2%)
24 (26) Joel Hey 14.1109 (91.0%)
25 (27) Nick Archick 14.6451 (90.4%)
26 (28) Ken Shartle 15.2467 (89.7%)
27 (29) Kirk Dennison 15.3843 (89.4%)
28 (30) Sara Harris 15.4427 (89.2%)
29 (23) Christian Fong 16.0366 (88.4%)
30 (31) James Bryant 16.4727 (88.1%)
31 (33) Connor Magras 16.4733 (87.9%)
32 (32) Nathan Voigt 16.5318 (87.7%)
33 (34) Josh Knitt 16.9757 (87.1%)
34 (35) James Roepke 17.0544 (86.9%)
35 (39) Tim Maly 17.342 (86.8%)
36 (36) Mark Underwood 17.6578 (86.6%)
37 (37) Josh Pearson 17.777 (86.3%)
38 (38) Drew Pegram 17.9315 (86.1%)
39 (40) Christian Rohrer 19.6936 (84.7%)
40 (41) Sam Nurge 20.1184 (84.2%)
41 (42) Chris McCravy 20.5138 (84.0%)
42 (43) Josh Ernst 20.7507 (83.5%)
43 (44) Jonathan Steckmann 20.9769 (83.3%)
44 (46) Luke McCrae 21.7265 (82.9%)
45 (NR) John Earley 22.4246 (82.5%)
46 (47) David Purvis 22.4495 (82.4%)
47 (18) Kyle Hostutler 22.731 (82.0%)
48 (49) Josh Brinkman 22.7896 (81.9%)
49 (50) Timothy Reed 22.8055 (81.7%)
50 (48) Alex Olijar 23.0797 (80.9%)
Dropped: Brian Jones (45)
Top 25 Average T1 2p Finishes at Nationals ('02-'13), min 2 Nationals - Active Players
Active Players are defined as players earning RNRS points or participating in this category at nationals in the past 2 years.
# Change Player Avg Finish (%)
1 (1) Gabe Isbell 3.7499 (98.7%)
2 (2) Daniel Huisinga 4.4961 (98.2%)
3 (4) Tim Mierzejewski 6.3851 (97.5%)
4 (5) Jonathan Greeson 6.7095 (97.2%)
5 (6) Matthew Townsend 9.317 (95.7%)
6 (3) Matt Stupienski 9.9777 (95.4%)
7 (8 ) Justin Sangillo 10.4391 (94.7%)
8 (7) Jordan Alstad 10.8483 (94.4%)
9 (9) Martin Miller 11.7419 (93.4%)
10 (11) Nicholas Marshall 12.6759 (92.8%)
11 (13) Nick Archick 14.6451 (90.4%)
12 (14) Kirk Dennison 15.3843 (89.4%)
13 (12) Christian Fong 16.0366 (88.4%)
14 (16) Connor Magras 16.4733 (87.9%)
15 (15) Nathan Voigt 16.5318 (87.7%)
16 (17) Josh Knitt 16.9757 (87.1%)
17 (18) James Roepke 17.0544 (86.9%)
18 (20) Tim Maly 17.342 (86.8%)
19 (19) Mark Underwood 17.6578 (86.6%)
20 (21) Sam Nurge 20.1184 (84.2%)
21 (NR) John Earley 22.4246 (82.5%)
22 (10) Kyle Hostutler 22.731 (82.0%)
23 (24) Josh Brinkman 22.7896 (81.9%)
24 (23) Alex Olijar 23.0797 (80.9%)
25 (25) Mike Wolfe 23.244 (80.7%)
Dropped: Brian Jones (22), Ben Shadrick (30)
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For another interesting look I dropped the worst finish for players that have played in more than 2 national tournaments. If a player only played in 2 national tournaments they did not have a placing dropped. This modified ranking list benefits players that performed poorly at one national tournament compared to much stellar results other years.
Top 50 Average T1 2p Finishes at Nationals ('02-'13), min 2 Nationals Minus Worst Finish - Active and Retired Players
# w/ Worst Player Avg Finish (%)
1 (5) Chad Soderstrom 2.3949 (99.6%)
2 (1) John Nesfeder 2.9644 (99.1%)
3 (3) Gabe Isbell 3.0837 (99.0%)
4 (4) Daniel Huisinga 3.1172 (98.8%)
5 (2) Joshua Hey 3.4053 (98.5%)
6 (7) Jonathan Greeson 3.4769 (98.3%)
7 (12) Matt Stupienski 5.1436 (97.7%)
8 (14) Jordan Alstad 5.2708 (97.4%)
9 (11) Burton Reed 5.8494 (97.0%)
10 (6) Tim Mierzejewski 6.3851 (96.9%)
11 (10) Matthew Townsend 6.8663 (96.5%)
12 (8 ) Jeremiah Bryant 6.9745 (96.4%)
13 (9) Michael Turnidge 7.0661 (96.1%)
14 (41) Chris McCravy 8.3183 (95.2%)
15 (13) Justin Sangillo 8.4085 (95.1%)
16 (24) Joel Hey 8.5931 (94.9%)
17 (28) Sara Harris 9.019 (94.6%)
18 (37) Josh Pearson 9.0961 (94.4%)
19 (20) Ben Arp 9.1565 (94.3%)
20 (16) Martin Miller 9.5998 (94.1%)
21 (31) Connor Magras 10.2763 (93.6%)
22 (19) Roy Cannaday 10.3599 (93.4%)
23 (32) Nathan Voigt 10.6914 (93.%)
24 (22) Jonathan Alstad 10.7665 (92.8%)
25 (NR) Reggie Flores 10.9743 (92.5%)
26 (15) Josh Slinkard 11.1039 (92.3%)
27 (27) Kirk Dennison 11.2958 (92.1%)
28 (39) Christian Rohrer 11.7282 (91.5%)
29 (17) Jesse Epperson 11.7659 (91.3%)
30 (45) John Earley 12.2407 (91.0%)
31 (47) Kyle Hostutler 12.486 (90.8%)
32 (18) Nicholas Marshall 12.6759 (90.5%)
33 (26) Ken Shartle 12.8289 (90.4%)
34 (21) Jason O'Rourke 13.0972 (90.2%)
35 (29) Christian Fong 13.1697 (89.9%)
36 (35) Tim Maly 13.3393 (89.5%)
37 (23) Daniel Whitten 13.7449 (88.9%)
38 (NR) Ben Shadrick 14.2573 (88.7%)
39 (25) Nick Archick 14.6451 (88.1%)
40 (NR) Jonathan Slager 14.8647 (87.7%)
41 (36) Mark Underwood 15.1638 (87.4%)
42 (33) Josh Knitt 15.9645 (86.4%)
43 (34) James Roepke 15.9922 (86.3%)
44 (44) Luke McCrae 16.4535 (85.8%)
45 (30) James Bryant 16.4727 (85.6%)
46 (40) Sam Nurge 17.5221 (85.0%)
47 (42) Josh Ernst 17.7649 (84.8%)
48 (38) Drew Pegram 17.9315 (84.5%)
49 (46) David Purvis 18.8728 (83.7%)
50 (50 Alex Olijar 19.0267 (83.5%)
Dropped: Jonathan Steckmann (43), Josh Brinkman (48), Timothy Reed (49)
Top 25 Average T1 2p Finishes at Nationals ('02-'13), min 2 Nationals Minus Worst Finish - Active Players
Active Players are defined as players earning RNRS points or participating in this category at nationals in the past 2 years.
# w/ Worst Player Avg Finish (%)
1 (1) Gabe Isbell 3.0837 (99.0%)
2 (2) Daniel Huisinga 3.1172 (98.8%)
3 (4) Jonathan Greeson 3.4769 (98.3%)
4 (6) Matt Stupienski 5.1436 (97.7%)
5 (8 ) Jordan Alstad 5.2708 (97.4%)
6 (3) Tim Mierzejewski 6.3851 (96.9%)
7 (5) Matthew Townsend 6.8663 (96.5%)
8 (7) Justin Sangillo 8.4085 (95.1%)
9 (9) Martin Miller 9.5998 (94.1%)
10 (14) Connor Magras 10.2763 (93.6%)
11 (15) Nathan Voigt 10.6914 (93.%)
12 (12) Kirk Dennison 11.2958 (92.1%)
13 (21) John Earley 12.2407 (91.0%)
14 (22) Kyle Hostutler 12.486 (90.8%)
15 (10) Nicholas Marshall 12.6759 (90.5%)
16 (13) Christian Fong 13.1697 (89.9%)
17 (18) Tim Maly 13.3393 (89.5%)
18 (NR) Ben Shadrick 14.2573 (88.7%)
19 (11) Nick Archick 14.6451 (88.1%)
20 (19) Mark Underwood 15.1638 (87.4%)
21 (16) Josh Knitt 15.9645 (86.4%)
22 (17) James Roepke 15.9922 (86.3%)
23 (20) Sam Nurge 17.5221 (85.0%)
24 (24) Alex Olijar 19.0267 (83.5%)
25 (23) Josh Brinkman 19.0722 (83.0%)
Dropped: Mike Wolfe (25)
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Top 50 Average T1 2p Finishes & Percentile at Nationals ('02-'13), min 2 Nationals - Active and Retired Players
# Change Player Avg Finish (%)
1 (1) John Nesfeder 3.3127 (99.1%)
2 (2) Joshua Hey 3.4053 (99.0%)
3 (3) Gabe Isbell 3.7499 (98.7%)
I think it's funny how MKC (0 national championships) is ranked higher than Hey or Isbell who both are multiple national champions in this event :)
Top 50 Average T1 2p Finishes & Percentile at Nationals ('02-'13), min 2 Nationals - Active and Retired Players
# Change Player Avg Finish (%)
8 (9) Jeremiah Bryant 6.9745 (97.0%)
11 (12) Burton Reed 9.8879 (95.6%)
17 (16) Jesse Epperson 11.7659 (93.3%)
18 (19) Nicholas Marshall 12.6759 (92.8%)
21 (22) Jason O'Rourke 13.0972 (92.3%)
24 (26) Joel Hey 14.1109 (91.0%)
28 (30) Sara Harris 15.4427 (89.2%)
30 (31) James Bryant 16.4727 (88.1%)
Who are these people? I've never heard of any of them, and would like to know their stories for potential HoF nominees.
Top 50 Average T1 2p Finishes & Percentile at Nationals ('02-'13), min 2 Nationals - Active and Retired Players
# Change Player Avg Finish (%)
35 (39) Tim Maly 17.342 (86.8%)
45 (NR) John Earley 22.4246 (82.5%)
These guys are ranked FAR too low. Just sayin'
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Clearly you did not read or understand his math behind 'average percentile'.
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Hey,
I think it's funny how MKC (0 national championships) is ranked higher than Hey or Isbell who both are multiple national champions in this event :)
Josh Hey's National titles were in Type 2. The best he ever finished in T1-2P was 3rd.
17 (16) Jesse Epperson 11.7659 (93.3%)
21 (22) Jason O'Rourke 13.0972 (92.3%)
24 (26) Joel Hey 14.1109 (91.0%)
Who are these people? I've never heard of any of them, and would like to know their stories for potential HoF nominees.
Jesse Epperson was a High School player from the Omaha area during our group's resurgence in 2007-2008. He was consistent, sound, and skilled in his player but never reached the exceptional level. He quit playing when he went to college.
Jason O'Rourke was (I think) a close friend of former cactus employee Kory Lentine. I got the impression he had a CCG background which he capitolized on in an era when few other Redemption players did.
Joel Hey was the younger brother of Josh Hey. He was a couple years younger (not exactly sure). He used similar decks and play style as his older brother but wasn't quite as sucessful as Josh.
Those are the only ones you listed I know well enough to comment about.
35 (39) Tim Maly 17.342 (86.8%)
45 (NR) John Earley 22.4246 (82.5%)
These guys are ranked FAR too low. Just sayin'
While the Lifetime RNRS Spreadsheet favors players that have been able to play in a lot of tournaments over the years, this spreadsheet favors those who haven't. Swiss style does not do a good job or ordering the players that finish in the middle of the field (when considering the middle 50% of the rankings for any given year the better players in that range are usually ranked too low and the worse players in that range tend to be ranked too high). That and the way averages work make it so that you have to stay in the top 25% every year to have a high ranking in this system (you'll notice that no player in the top 15 has ever finished worse than 21st in a given year). The more times you play T1-2P at nationals, the less likely that is. John has played in the category 6 times I've played in it 8 times. The only people above us on Kirk's list that have played in at least 6 Nationals are Justin Sangillo, Martin Miller, Ben Arp, and Sam Nurge.
It'd be interesting to see where John and I ended up if this system were implemented using the Median rather than the Mean.
Tschow,
Tim "Sir Nobody" Maly
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Clearly you did not read or understand his math behind 'average percentile'.
Nah, I know how averages work. I just still found it funny :)
Josh Hey's National titles were in Type 2. The best he ever finished in T1-2P was 3rd.
Ahh, good point.
Clearly people are taking these rankings too seriously
This whole website is about a game. Nobody's making a living or dying here, so naturally we're not taking this too seriously. It's just a fun way of looking at long term results (which there aren't any official ways to do).
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Clearly you did not read or understand his math behind 'average percentile'.
Nah, I know how averages work. I just still found it funny :)
Singling out MKC from all those lists seems a bit unfunny. ;)
Clearly you did not read or understand his math behind 'average percentile'.
Clearly people are taking these rankings too seriously given that this is junk math and the numbers are fairly meaningless.
Please remove your post. I find it highly offensive that you would insult mathematics like this publicly. :o
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Clearly people are taking these rankings too seriously
This whole website is about a game. Nobody's making a living or dying here, so naturally we're not taking this too seriously.
I was using the word seriously in the sense of "you can't be serious" not in the "serious matter" sense.
Please remove your post. I find it highly offensive that you would insult mathematics like this publicly. :o
I removed it. Although to be clear, I wasn't insulting mathematics as a whole just the branch of the study known as "junk mathematics." ;)
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I removed it. Although to be clear, I wasn't insulting mathematics as a whole just the branch of the study known as "junk mathematics." ;)
I want you remove every post you have ever written in this forum, unless you are willing to denounce this discrimination toward "trivial statistics." I take my mathematics very seriously. ;)
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Singling out MKC from all those lists seems a bit unfunny. ;)
Ahh, I get it now. I apologize for any confusion there. I wasn't trying to make MKC look bad. He is an amazingly talented player, and a significant part of our forum community here. I was actually trying more to point out that I'm surprised Gabe isn't first. I'm sorry if I offended you there MKC, you are certainly a better player than I am (and most of the other players on that list).